Dangerous days ahead for the UK Conservatives

Voters are shifting, Reform is rising and credibility is eroding. Britain’s once‑dominant Conservatives face a storm they may not survive

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By any reasonable yardstick, the UK Conservatives have been one of the West’s most successful and durable political parties. Founded in 1834, the party has been a regular power contender ever since. Despite vast social changes, it has always had a significant constituency. It’s been in office for 49 of the 80 years since the end of the Second World War.

Although often derided as reactionary, the Conservatives have been remarkably adaptable and open to newcomers. A few examples illustrate the point.

The UK has had three female prime ministers, all of them Conservative. Another Conservative, Rishi Sunak, the son of Indian immigrants and a Hindu, was the first—and still the only—non-white prime minister. The new party leader, Kemi Badenoch, is a Black woman born in England to Nigerian parents but raised in Nigeria until the age of 16. She self-describes as the functional equivalent of a first-generation immigrant.

Nonetheless, Labour is perceived as the “progressive” party despite never having either a female or non-white leader. A cynic might be tempted to see the anomaly as yet another example of performative rhetoric trumping actual behaviour. In other words, pay attention to what I say, not what I do.

In last year’s general election, Labour took 34 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives scored 24 per cent and the brand-new Reform UK nabbed 14 per cent. But now, an aggregation of polls puts Reform at 31 per cent, Labour at 21 per cent and the Conservatives trailing at 17 per cent.

What happened?

Labour’s “landslide” may well have been the election’s headline news, but it was very much an artefact of hitting the sweetest of sweet spots in the first-past-the-post system. With just 34 per cent of the vote—the smallest share of any modern UK government—it scooped 63 per cent of the seats. The real news was how the upstart Reform ate into the hitherto Conservative vote. But both Labour and the Conservatives subsequently chose to act as if Reform wasn’t a serious player. That was a mistake, more so for the Conservatives than for Labour.

Uncontrolled immigration is one of the hottest issues in British politics, particularly as many of the immigrants are young males from societies with very different values and expectations than the British norm. When the Conservatives were in office, they were unable to stop the continuous flood of small boat arrivals from France. Given that France is by any reasonable definition a safe country, the boats’ passengers weren’t fleeing imminent danger. They just wanted to come to the UK. Now, the new Labour government is proving to be equally powerless.

There are various reasons for this: legal entanglements; a definition of refugees that was formulated in a time when people were far less mobile internationally; the elevation (by some) of multiculturalism over traditional national identity; and so forth. But the fact that both the Conservatives and Labour are either unable or unwilling to control the border opens the door to Reform.

Energy is another issue. UK electricity costs are the highest in the G7 and around four times higher than in the United States. Approximately one-sixth of the cost consists of levies and payments designed to subsidize renewables. And Boris Johnson’s Conservative government turned “net zero by 2050” into a legal requirement in 2019.

Although electricity costs have obvious implications for deindustrialization, the commitment has become a sacred cow for many people. But to quote Vaclav Smil, a global authority on energy issues and nobody’s idea of a “climate denier”: “What’s the point of setting goals which cannot be achieved? People call it aspirational. I call it delusional.” And Reform describes it as “net stupid zero.”

Granted, the Conservatives are now backing away from the legal commitment and Johnson himself has acknowledged that he went overboard. Still, there’s a matter of credibility. As with border control, it’s reasonable to question the change of heart. If returned to office, would they follow through? Or, looking at the polls, are they just trying to sound like a more “respectable” version of Reform?

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the next general election won’t be until 2029. And much can happen in the interim. Disillusion with the Conservatives’ 14 years in office might fade; despite a rocky start, Badenoch might live up to her potential and politically catch fire; and reasonable doubts about Reform’s ability to deliver might prove decisive.

But I can’t remember a time when the Conservatives looked so potentially vulnerable.

Troy Media columnist Pat Murphy casts a history buff’s eye at the goings-on in our world. Never cynical – well, perhaps a little bit.